Number Of Poor Filipinos Likely To Rise By 4 Million In 2009

Using even the government's unrealistically low poverty line, the number of poor Filipinos will likely increase by 4 million this year from 2006, according to research group IBON Foundation.
This figure is based on a conservative estimate, said IBON research head Sonny Africa, since it merely assumes a continuation of trends in the 2003-2006 period. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5.6% in 2004-2006, but the number of poor Filipinos according to the government's official poverty line still increased by 3.8 million to 27.6 million in 2006. GDP growth will likely average even less than 5% in the 2007-2009 period, which means that poverty will possibly increase by at least 4 million poor Filipinos.

Africa added that growth has dropped steeply from 7.2% GDP growth in 2007, to 4.6% in 2008 and will likely be less than 3% this year. The real number of jobless Filipinos increased to 4.1 million in 2008 and will likely rise to some 5 million this year. The number of unemployed and underemployed Filipinos could then rise to at least 11 to 12 million in 2009.

Given the scale of the problem, the government's measures for supposedly dealing with the crisis are sorely lacking, he said. The alleged "pump-priming" 2009 national government budget is actually equivalent to just some 16% of the GDP, and is among the smallest in the last two-and-a-half decades. The size of the budget has been more or less continuously falling from a peak of 24% in 1990. The supposed "alternative livelihood" and "jobs placement" programs seem oblivious to the severity of global and domestic economic problems and the absence of jobs for millions of displaced workers. In any case, they are even very narrowly targeted at just newly-displaced workers and ignore the over 4 million workers who were unemployed even before the recent worsening of the crisis.

There is certainly a need for the government to undertake mitigating measures, said Africa. Because of the huge number of poor Filipinos, the mitigation measures have to reach the greatest number in the quickest manner possible. Among these are restoring real per capita social services spending to at least 1997 levels through an additional P246 billion for social services and removing the value-added tax (VAT) on food and oil products.

Over and above these measures, there needs to be a radical change in economic policies to strengthen the domestic economy and create jobs and livelihoods for millions of Filipinos, said Africa.